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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still