A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
